In the black – PSI

19 Apr 2022

51.6

March

+2.7

Monthly Change

expanding

previously contracting

View Kirk Hope's profile

Kirk Hope

Chief Executive, BusinessNZ

View profile

After seven months in contraction, activity levels in New Zealand's services sector saw expansion in March, according to the BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

The PSI for March was 51.6 (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates that the service sector is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining).  This was up 2.7 points from February, but still below the long-term average of 53.6 for the survey.

BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said that after a difficult period for many businesses in the services sector, a return to overall expansion was welcomed.  However,  the underlying results show there is still some way to go to return to what many would consider business as usual. 

"The two key sub-indexes of New Orders/Business (60.1) and Activity/Sales (53.8) both continued their upwards momentum.  However, Employment (48.5) and Supplier Deliveries (40.1) remain in contraction.  In addition, the proportion of negative comments stands at 57.5%, although this is down from 61.5% in February."

BNZ Senior Economist Craig Ebert said that "despite some horribly weak components, the PSI supported the idea that GDP is on track to recover in Q2, after a flat-to-negative performance in Q1."

View the PSI Time Series Data


Main Indicies

Regional Results

Services Landscape
View Craig Ebert's profile

Craig Ebert

Senior Economist, BNZ

Positivity

March’s Performance of Services Index (PSI) held out hope of better times, in many ways. Overall, it was good to see the first expansion in 8 months, with a seasonally adjusted index reading of 51.6.
Read more

Supply Constraints

Complaints about supply-side factors certainly remained to the fore in feedback to March’s PSI, with references to “Covid/Omicron”, “Red”, “staffing” and “(international) supply chains".
Read more

Back from the Abyss?

So, when we look at Cultural, Recreation & Personal, still way down in the dumps in March at 15.6, it’s not hard to imagine upside for this events-driven category in the coming months.
Read more

Growth implications

Even as it was in March, and despite some horribly weak components, the PSI supported the idea that GDP is on track to recover in Q2, after a flat-to-negative performance in Q1.
Read more

View the BNZ Services Landscape

PSI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National Indicies Mar
2021
Nov
2021
Dec
2021
Jan
2022
Feb
2022
Mar
2022
BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI 54.1 47.3 49.9 46.2 48.9 51.6
Activity/Sales 57.1 46.6 50.9 44.6 50.9 53.8
Employment 52.2 50.4 49.1 47.4 45.0 48.5
New Orders/Business 61.1 53.3 52.2 40.9 55.3 60.1
Stocks/Inventories 50.1 47.2 51.2 48.3 50.3 52.5
Supplier Deliveries 44.9 37.9 49.6 43.6 34.4 40.1

View the PSI Time Series Data

BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI Time Series

January 2016 – March 2022

PSI Time Series Graph

International Results

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PSITM
6 Apr 2022

53.4

International PSI

BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI

52.0

GDP-Weighted Index

52.5

Free-Weighted Index

The seasonally adjusted BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Composite Index or PCI (which combines the PMI and PSI) saw both options for measuring the March PCI in expansion, which isthe first time this has occurred since December 2021. 

The March GDP-Weighted Index (52.0) increased 2.4 points from February, while the Free-Weighted Index (52.5) rose 0.9 points.

PCI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National IndicesMar
2021
Nov
2021
Dec
2021
Jan
2022
Feb
2022
Mar
2022
GDP-Weighted Index 55.547.850.747.049.652.0
Free-Weighted Index58.449.852.847.851.652.5

View the PCI Time Series Data

BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI Time Series

January 2016 – March 2022

PCI Time Series Graph