Over the line – PSI

19 Apr 2021

52.4

March

+2.7

Monthly Change

expanding

previously contracting

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Kirk Hope

Chief Executive, BusinessNZ

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Activity in New Zealand’s services sector climbed into expansion during March for the first time in five months, according to the BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

The PSI for March was 52.4, which was up 2.7 points from February (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates that the service sector is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining).  This was the highest result since July 2020, although still below the long term average of 53.8.

BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said that a lift in the key sub-index of New Orders/Business (56.9) led the way towards expansion in March, followed by Activity/Sales (54.5).  The other three sub-indices continue to show either lacklustre expansion or remain in contraction.

"Any sustained shift towards the services sector exhibiting ongoing expansion will need to see activity/sales and new orders remaining near or above their long term average results to continue momentum".

BNZ Senior Economist Craig Ebert said that "as decent as New Zealand’s PSI was for March, with its 52.4, it was shy of where the global PSI got to for the month, namely 54.7. Of course, it’s all relative to recent history, which for many countries abroad has meant a lift out of a hole rather than onto a podium".

View the PSI Time Series Data


Main Indicies

Regional Results

Services Landscape
View Craig Ebert's profile

Craig Ebert

Senior Economist, BNZ

The PSI

New Zealand’s Performance of Services Index (PSI) reclaimed an expansive tone in March. It wasn’t ballistic, like the PMI (63.6) was for the month. However, at 52.4 the PSI wasn’t far below its long-term average (53.8) and broke a 4- month run of contractionary readings in the process.
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Capacity Constraint

Supply issues were also indicated in last week’s NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO). Difficulty in finding staff, for instance – whether skilled or unskilled – had clearly returned with a vengeance amongst service sector respondents.
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Less Restricted

As we noted in last month’s report, “there is good reason to believe the PSI can bounce in March, because February was beset by the latest rash of lockdowns”. Yes, restrictions continued into early March, but a downscaling of these was the main tendency though the month, especially regards Auckland.
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NZ Following Global Lead

As decent as New Zealand’s PSI was for March, with its 52.4, it was shy of where the global PSI got to for the month, namely 54.7. Of course, it’s all relative to recent history, which for many countries abroad has meant a lift out of a hole rather than onto a podium.
Read more

View the BNZ Services Landscape

PSI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National IndiciesMar
2020
Nov
2020
Dec
2020
Jan
2021
Feb
2021
Mar
2021
BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI 36.346.649.248.349.752.4
Activity/Sales 28.045.751.347.251.354.5
Employment46.349.452.746.351.151.8
New Orders/Business32.651.850.853.851.156.9
Stocks/Inventories44.845.948.450.046.048.9
Supplier Deliveries33.139.639.841.941.043.5

View the PSI Time Series Data

BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI Time Series

July 2014 – March 2021

PSI Time Series Graph

International Results

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PSITM
7 Apr 2021

54.7

International PSI

BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI

53.7

GDP-Weighted Index

58.0

Free-Weighted Index

The seasonally adjusted BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Composite Index or PCI (which combines the PMI and PSI) saw the two options for measuring the PCI showed both increase in expansion during March.

The March GDP-Weighted Index (53.7) rose 3.3 points in March, while the Free-Weighted Index (58.0) increased 5.9 points.

PCI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National IndicesMar
2020
Nov
2020
Dec
2020
Jan
2021
Feb
2021
Mar
2021
GDP-Weighted Index 36.547.649.349.750.453.7
Free-Weighted Index36.850.649.653.252.158.0

View the PCI Time Series Data

BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI Time Series

July 2014 – March 2021

PCI Time Series Graph