Standard service resumes – PSI

18 Mar 2019

53.8

February

-2.4

Monthly Change

expanding

slower rate

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Kirk Hope

Chief Executive,

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New Zealand’s services sector returned to expansion levels experienced in recent months, according to the BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

The PSI for February was 53.8, which was 2.4 points down from January (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates that the service sector is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining).  The February result was also below the long term average of 54.5 for the survey.

BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said despite the January result getting 2019 off to a solid footing, the February result meant the survey fell back in line with recent expansion levels.

“While four of the five main sub-indexes showed similar results to the previous months, the key sub-index of activity/sales (53.4) decreased 8.1 points.  Also, supplier deliveries (49.9) dipped into contraction for February.   

The decrease in overall activity levels also saw the proportion of positive comments in February (52.4%) also dip slightly, compared with January (54.0%) and December (54.4%).  A number of negative comments focussed on uncertainty in the market, along with slow demand.  However, a number of positive comments outlined new business and strong demand for certain services". 

BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel said "The PSI has shown little direction over the past six months, but overall indicates positive economic growth albeit a bit slower than was prevailing a year ago".

View the PSI Time Series Data


Main Indicies

Regional Results

Services Landscape
View Doug Steel's profile

Doug Steel

Senior Economist, BNZ

Steady, If Slower, Progress

There remains no clear direction in the Performance of Services Index (PSI). Yes, it eased to 53.8 in February following a pop higher to 56.2 in January, but this simply returns the index to a level similar to that seen towards the end of last year.
Read more

Good Order

The PSI details remain mixed and choppy month to month. On a three month average basis, new orders have improved to be bordering on strong, sales expansion has been moderate and steady, while employment growth is positive but has slowed.
Read more

GDP Implications

Combining the recently steady PSI with the mild improvement seen in last week’s Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) provides some solace for NZ economic growth watchers.
Read more

View the BNZ Services Landscape

PSI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National IndiciesFeb
2018
Oct
2018
Nov
2018
Dec
2018
Jan
2019
Feb
2019
BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI 55.155.553.553.256.253.8
Activity/Sales 54.357.453.452.361.553.4
Employment50.853.655.550.552.751.9
New Orders/Business61.058.557.859.561.359.9
Stocks/Inventories53.951.950.351.249.949.3
Supplier Deliveries54.151.148.751.751.949.9

View the PSI Time Series Data

BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI Time Series

July 2014 – February 2019

PSI Time Series Graph

International Results

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PSITM
5 Mar 2019

53.3

International PSI

BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI

54.1

GDP-Weighted Index

54.5

Free-Weighted Index

The seasonally adjusted BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Composite Index or PCI (which combines the PMI and PSI) saw the two options for measuring the PCI both decrease in expansion levels during February.

The February GDP-Weighted Index (54.1) decreased 1.9 points from January, while the Free-Weighted Index (54.5) decreased 0.7 points.  Despite the manufacturing sector improving from January, it was not enough to more than compensate for the lower activity level shown in the services sector for February.

PCI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National IndiciesFeb
2018
Oct
2018
Nov
2018
Dec
2018
Jan
2019
Feb
2019
GDP-Weighted Index 55.155.253.653.756.054.1
Free-Weighted Index54.954.853.954.955.254.5

View the PCI Time Series Data

BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI Time Series

July 2014 – February 2019

PCI Time Series Graph