Solid start to 2019 – PSI

18 Feb 2019

56.3

January

+3.1

Monthly Change

expanding

faster rate

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Kirk Hope

Chief Executive, BusinessNZ

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New Zealand’s services sector experienced an increase in expansion levels for the first month of 2019, according to the BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

The PSI for January was 56.3, which was 3.1 points up from December (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates that the service sector is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining).  This was the highest level of expansion since May, and above the long term average of 54.5 for the survey.

BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said that it was good to see 2019 start off on solid expansion grounds.

“It was particularly good to see the key sub-indicators of activity/sales (61.5) and new orders/business (61.4) both above the 60-point mark, with the former at its highest level since March 2018.

Despite the rise in overall activity levels, the proportion of positive comments in January (54.0%) was almost exactly the same as December (54.4%), but lower than both November (60.1%) and October (56.5%).  Both Xmas and holidays were again the stand out reasons for negative comments, while a number of positive comments outlined new clients and business opportunities for the new year". 

BNZ Senior Economist Craig Ebert said "January’s PSI suggests that the services sector is still chugging along relatively well, as we head into 2019, rather than fading as a backbone to GDP growth".

View the PSI Time Series Data


Main Indicies

Regional Results

Services Landscape
View Craig Ebert's profile

Craig Ebert

Senior Economist, BNZ

More Substance

New Zealand’s Performance of Services Index (PSI) started 2019 with more substance, having ended 2018 on a moderate note. In numbers, it sprang to a seasonally adjusted 56.3 in January, from 53.2 in December.
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Positive on GDP

By improving a fair bit in January, the PSI helped support our economic views on a number of levels. For a start, it went some way to offsetting the moderation in the PMI in the month, which dipped to 53.1, from 54.8 in December.
Read more

Positive on Employment

January’s PSI also supports our view that employment growth continues to tick along relatively well. The PSI’s job index, having virtually stalled in December, with 50.3, rebounded to a seasonally adjusted 52.9 in January.
Read more

Retail Rebound

A more specific area where the latest PSI has calmed nerves is with regard to retailing. Of course, we’ve already seen electronic card transactions bounce back with force in January, from an unusually large drop in December.
Read more

View the BNZ Services Landscape

PSI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National IndiciesJan
2018
Sep
2018
Oct
2018
Nov
2018
Dec
2018
Jan
2019
BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI 55.054.255.553.653.256.3
Activity/Sales 59.156.057.553.452.361.5
Employment50.750.253.755.550.352.9
New Orders/Business58.256.458.557.859.661.4
Stocks/Inventories53.253.551.950.351.249.9
Supplier Deliveries53.452.351.148.751.751.9

View the PSI Time Series Data

BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI Time Series

July 2014 – January 2019

PSI Time Series Graph

International Results

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PSITM
5 Feb 2019

52.6

International PSI

BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI

56.1

GDP-Weighted Index

55.3

Free-Weighted Index

The seasonally adjusted BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Composite Index or PCI (which combines the PMI and PSI) saw the two options for measuring the PCI again both improve during January.

The January GDP-Weighted Index (56.1) increased 2.3 points from December, while the Free-Weighted Index (55.3) rose 0.2 points.  The fact that the services sector experienced a solid increase in expansion while the manufacturing sector fell back slightly meant the GDP-Weighted Index improved by a greater margin for the beginning of 2019.

PCI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National IndiciesJan
2018
Sep
2018
Oct
2018
Nov
2018
Dec
2018
Jan
2019
GDP-Weighted Index 55.453.955.253.653.856.1
Free-Weighted Index55.953.354.753.955.155.3

View the PCI Time Series Data

BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI Time Series

July 2014 – January 2019

PCI Time Series Graph