BNZ – BusinessNZ
Performance of
Services Index

Path to improvement – PSI

18 Nov, 2019
55.4
October
+0.9

Monthly Change

expanding
faster rate

Expansion in New Zealand’s services sector climbed above its long term average level of activity, according to the BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

The PSI for October was 55.4, which was 0.9 points up from September (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates that the service sector is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining).  The October result was also exactly one point above the long term average of 54.4 for the survey.

BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said that after three months at the 54 point mark, it was pleasing to see the sector push through to its highest result since January this year.

“Looking at the key sub-index values, both new orders/business (62.1) and activity/sales (58.1) improved their result since January 2019 and May 2018 respectively, with the former showing strong expansion.  Employment (52.0) fell marginally, while stocks/inventories (51.3) remained all but unchanged from the previous month.

Looking at comments from respondents, the lift in overall expansion was mirrored in the proportion of positive comments that went from 48.6% in September to 50.7% in October.

BNZ Senior Economist Craig Ebert said that “the firming in the PSI has been complemented by a sharp recovery in the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) for October. Between the two of them, they now indicate annual GDP growth of closer to 2% than the 1% they portrayed just months ago”.

Kirk Hope

Kirk Hope

CEO, BusinessNZ

BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI

Time Series Data

View seasonally adjusted and unadjusted time series data for the BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI

Services Landscape

The PSI

New Zealand’s services sector continues to shake off a mid-year slow patch. That’s according to the latest Performance of Services Index (PSI) anyway. It firmed up to a seasonally adjusted 55.4 in October – a point above its long-term average.
Read more

GDP

The firming in the PSI has been complemented by a sharp recovery in the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) for October. Between the two of them, they now indicate annual GDP growth of closer to 2% than the 1% they portrayed just months ago.
Read more

Spending

The industry detail in October’s PSI added to the feeling of fortitude. Not so much for a common pulse of expansion across all industries; there wasn’t.
Read more

Housing

Certainly, there is potential for household spending to be given a boost by house price inflation, which is surely picking up. Last week’s Real Estate Institute figures showed annual house price inflation strengthening to 3.9% nationally, and to 8.2% outside of Auckland.
Read more

Craig Ebert

Craig Ebert

Senior Economist, BNZ

Sponsor Statement

BNZ is delighted to be associated with the Performance of Services Index (PSI) and BusinessNZ.

This association brings together the significant experience of leading business advocacy body BusinessNZ, and business finance specialist BNZ.

We look forward to continuing our association with BusinessNZ and associated regional organisations, and to playing our part in the ongoing development of the New Zealand service sector.

PSI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National Indicies Oct
2018
Jun
2019
Jul
2019
Aug
2019
Sep
2019
Oct
2019
BNZ – BusinessNZ PSI 55.0 53.1 54.9 54.7 54.5 55.4
Activity/Sales 57.0 55.1 57.3 56.2 54.5 58.1
Employment 53.7 51.1 51.9 53.6 52.6 52.0
New Orders/Business 58.0 55.6 58.5 57.1 59.5 62.1
Stocks/Inventories 52.5 53.6 54.3 53.3 51.2 51.3
Supplier Deliveries 51.4 49.7 48.9 51.6 50.4 49.5

BNZ – BusinessNZ PSI Time Series

October 2015 – October 2019

International Results

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PSITM

06 Nov 2019
51.0

About the PSI

The BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index is a monthly survey of the service sector providing an early indicator of activity levels.

A PSI reading above 50 points indicates service activity is expanding; below 50 indicates it is contracting.

The main PSI and sub-index results are seasonally adjusted.

Technical Contact

Stephen Summers
Economist, BusinessNZ

[email protected]

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BNZ – BusinessNZ
Performance of
Composite Index

55.1

GDP-Weighted Index

54.5

Free-Weighted Index

The seasonally adjusted BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Composite Index or PCI (which combines the PMI and PSI) saw the two options for measuring the PCI both improve from the previous month.

The October GDP-Weighted Index (55.1) increased 1.3 points from September, while the Free-Weighted Index (54.5) rose 2.3 points. The fact that both the manufacturing and services sectors displayed higher levels of activity in October caused the two options to measure the PCI to rise.

PCI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National Indicies Oct
2018
Jun
2019
Jul
2019
Aug
2019
Sep
2019
Oct
2019
GDP-Weighted Index 54.8 52.8 54.1 54.0 53.8 55.1
Free-Weighted Index 54.3 52.5 52.1 52.0 52.2 54.5

BNZ – BusinessNZ PCI Time Series

October 2015 – October 2019

About the PCI

The BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Composite Index (PCI) takes into account results from both the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) and the Performance of Services Index (PSI). Combined results are shown in two ways:

GDP-Weighted Index:
Apportions the weight of the manufacturing and services index within the economy to produce an overall result.

Free-Weighted Index:
Combines data from both indexes to produce an overall result.

Both time series for the PCI are then seasonally adjusted.

BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI

Time Series Data

View seasonally adjusted and unadjusted time series data for the BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI

Our Contributors

The BNZ – BusinessNZ PSI contains data obtained through BusinessNZ’s regional organisations