Holding pattern – PSI

14 Oct 2019

54.4

September

-0.2

Monthly Change

expanding

slower rate

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Kirk Hope

Chief Executive,

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Expansion in New Zealand’s services sector continued to ease back marginally in September, according to the BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

The PSI for September was 54.4, which was another 0.2 points down from August (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates that the service sector is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining).  The September result was also exactly at the long term average of 54.4 for the survey.

BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said that the services sector has been fairly settled in terms of expansion over the last three months.

"The fact that new orders/business (59.3) improved to its highest result since January should assist with general business activity going forward.  However, looking more broadly the gap in performance between the services and manufacturing sectors persists.  With other key economic data showing a general trend decline, the question becomes to what degree will the services sector be affected by slowing influences elsewhere in the months ahead.

Looking at comments from respondents, the proportion of positive comments for September stood at 48.6%, compared with 51.8% in August and 47.6% in July.

BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel said that "the solidity of the service sector remains in stark contrast to the manufacturing sector as portrayed by the still substandard Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) released last week. The PSI and PMI composite index continues to point to overall annual economic growth slowing to around the 1.5% mark".

View the PSI Time Series Data


Main Indicies

Regional Results

Services Landscape
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Doug Steel

Senior Economist, BNZ

Same, Same

Looking from the top down, New Zealand’s service sector looked much the same in September as it did in August. That is, growing at a steady, trend-like, pace. The Performance of Services Index (PSI) was 54.4 in September. This was little different to August’s 54.6 and actually smack on the long term average for the series.
Read more

But Different

While the headline PSI looks much the same as before, the details suggest it is on a firmer footing and enough to keep optimism for some growth ahead.
Read more

Tourism Slower

Looking at the PSI by industry shows the usual volatility month to month. Smoothing on a three month average basis sees nearly all industries showing healthy growth.
Read more

View the BNZ Services Landscape

PSI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National IndiciesSep
2018
May
2019
Jun
2019
Jul
2019
Aug
2019
Sep
2019
BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI 54.253.753.154.854.654.4
Activity/Sales 56.255.155.157.256.154.4
Employment50.151.251.152.153.452.7
New Orders/Business56.956.055.658.556.959.3
Stocks/Inventories54.456.253.754.453.551.8
Supplier Deliveries52.251.449.748.951.650.5

View the PSI Time Series Data

BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI Time Series

July 2014 – September 2019

PSI Time Series Graph

International Results

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PSITM
3 Oct 2019

51.6

International PSI

BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI

53.8

GDP-Weighted Index

52.0

Free-Weighted Index

The seasonally adjusted BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Composite Index or PCI (which combines the PMI and PSI) saw the two options for measuring the PCI stay relatively similar in September.

The September GDP-Weighted Index (53.8) decreased 0.2 points from August, while the Free-Weighted Index (52.0) rose 0.1 points.

PCI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National IndiciesSep
2018
May
2019
Jun
2019
Jul
2019
Aug
2019
Sep
2019
GDP-Weighted Index 54.153.252.854.154.053.8
Free-Weighted Index53.552.052.552.151.952.0

View the PCI Time Series Data

BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI Time Series

July 2014 – September 2019

PCI Time Series Graph