2 steps back – PSI

16 Dec 2019

53.3

November

-2.0

Monthly Change

expanding

slower rate

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Kirk Hope

Chief Executive, BusinessNZ

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New Zealand’s services sector experienced a dip in expansion levels during November, according to the BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

The PSI for November was 53.3, which was 2 points down from October (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates that the service sector is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining).  The November result was also below the long term average of 54.4 for the survey.

BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said that despite the improvement in October, the November result was the lowest level of expansion since June

"Looking at the key sub-index values, a key concern is the drop in expansion for new orders/business (53.9), which is at its lowest level since September 2012.  The other key sub-index of activity/sales (54.1) also fell to its lowest point since April 2019.  These results tend to suggest it may be a while longer before we see a sustained level of healthy expansion for the sector.

Looking at comments from respondents, it was good to see a further lift in the proportion of positive comments that went from 50.7% in October to 60.9% in November.

BNZ Senior Economist Craig Ebert said that "the dip in the PSI in November coincided with a slight fall in the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) in the month. Together, these tugged on the reins of GDP growth expectations".

View the PSI Time Series Data


Main Indicies

Regional Results

Services Landscape
View Craig Ebert's profile

Craig Ebert

Senior Economist, BNZ

The PSI

Having rebounded well through much of this year, New Zealand’s Performance of Services Index (PSI) suffered a knock in November.  Its 2-point dip, to 53.3, put it back below its long-term norm of 54.4.
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GDP

The dip in the PSI in November coincided with a slight fall in the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) in the month. Together, these tugged on the reins of GDP growth expectations. To be sure, we never got carried away in this respect.
Read more

Selective Services

As part of our 0.5% pick for Q3 GDP growth we assume that its service-sector component replicated the sort of momentum they reclaimed in Q2, after a very slow gain in Q1, of 0.3%. And we get a strong signal from the selected-services data for Q3, as published by Statistics NZ.
Read more

Electronic Transactions

After their wobble in October, electronic card transactions needed to bounce to save blushes on Q4 retail trade computations. They didn’t disappoint – up 1.0% overall and 2.6% when looking at the retail category.
Read more

View the BNZ Services Landscape

PSI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National IndiciesNov
2018
Jul
2019
Aug
2019
Sep
2019
Oct
2019
Nov
2019
BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI 53.854.854.654.455.353.3
Activity/Sales 53.757.256.154.457.954.1
Employment56.451.953.552.551.551.6
New Orders/Business58.358.557.159.461.953.9
Stocks/Inventories47.654.553.651.651.856.5
Supplier Deliveries48.149.051.750.649.752.8

View the PSI Time Series Data

BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI Time Series

July 2014 – November 2019

PSI Time Series Graph

International Results

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PSITM
4 Dec 2019

51.6

International PSI

BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI

53.0

GDP-Weighted Index

52.5

Free-Weighted Index

The seasonally adjusted BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Composite Index or PCI (which combines the PMI and PSI) saw the two options for measuring the PCI both decrease from the previous month.

The November GDP-Weighted Index (53.0) decreased 1.9 points from October, while the Free-Weighted Index (52.5) fell 1.8 points.  The fact that both the manufacturing and services sectors displayed lower levels of activity in November caused the two options to measure the PCI to fall.

PCI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National IndicesNov
2018
Jul
2019
Aug
2019
Sep
2019
Oct
2019
Nov
2019
GDP-Weighted Index 53.754.154.053.854.953.0
Free-Weighted Index53.952.152.052.154.352.5

View the PCI Time Series Data

BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI Time Series

July 2014 – November 2019

PCI Time Series Graph