Return to norm – PSI

14 May 2018

55.9

April

-2.7

Monthly Change

expanding

slower rate

View Kirk Hope's profile

Kirk Hope

Chief Executive, BusinessNZ

View profile

New Zealand’s services sector returned to expansion levels seen during the start of the year, according to the BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

The PSI for April was 55.9, which was 2.7 points lower than March (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates that the service sector is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining).  It was the third time in the last five months that an expansion result of 55.9 has been reached.

BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said that while the April results showed a decrease in expansion levels, the April result was still very consistent with recent values.

“Comments clearly remain more positive (65.1%) than negative, with many stating business as usual, as well as various seasonal factors at work.  Overall, the sector remains in good heart".

BNZ Senior Economist Craig Ebert said that "even with its big fall in April, the PSI remained better than average.  The long-term average for the series is 54.5. Outside of March’s spike, the PSI has been averaging just-above normal post the announcement of the new government".

View the PSI Time Series Data


Main Indicies

Regional Results

Services Landscape
View Craig Ebert's profile

Craig Ebert

Senior Economist, BNZ

The PSI

Even with its big fall in April, the Performance of Services Index (PSI) remained better than average. In numbers, the PSI dropped to a seasonally adjusted 55.9, from a spikey looking level of 58.6 in March.
Read more

Retailing

If there is a lagging industry within the services sector it is arguably retailing. Certainly, this was the weakest of the industries in April’s PSI, with an unadjusted reading of 43.6.
Read more

Employment

The labour market remains a backbone to aggregate household spending, albeit more so via jobs growth than strong wage inflation. This was highlighted in the March quarter labour market data.
Read more

Housing

The Real Estate Institute’s housing data for April were a little underwhelming. Yes, there was a bounce-back in home sales, but only just (on our seasonally adjusted estimates).
Read more

View the BNZ Services Landscape

PSI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National IndiciesApr
2017
Dec
2017
Jan
2018
Feb
2018
Mar
2018
Apr
2018
BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI 53.855.955.955.158.655.9
Activity/Sales 52.658.459.453.664.556.6
Employment55.255.950.750.750.651.4
New Orders/Business55.760.459.660.763.560.8
Stocks/Inventories47.451.452.554.355.451.9
Supplier Deliveries49.650.554.154.655.751.8

View the PSI Time Series Data

BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI Time Series

January 2012 – April 2018

PSI Time Series Graph

International Results

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PSITM
4 May 2018

53.8

International PSI

BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI

55.9

GDP-Weighted Index

56.8

Free-Weighted Index

The seasonally adjusted BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Composite Index or PCI (which combines the PMI and PSI) saw the two options for measuring the PCI display contrasting results during April.

The April GDP-Weighted Index (55.9) decreased 1.5 points from the previous month, while the Free-Weighted Index (54.4) increased 1.0 point.  The decrease in the former was influenced by a drop in service sector expansion levels.

PCI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National IndiciesApr
2017
Dec
2017
Jan
2018
Feb
2018
Mar
2018
Apr
2018
GDP-Weighted Index 53.855.555.955.057.455.9
Free-Weighted Index54.154.155.854.655.856.8

View the PCI Time Series Data

BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI Time Series

January 2013 – April 2018

PCI Time Series Graph