Softening in September – PSI

17 Oct 2016

54.1

September

-3.8

Monthly Change

expanding

slower rate

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Kirk Hope

Chief Executive, BusinessNZ

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New Zealand's services sector experienced a softening in expansion across all main indicators, according to the BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

The PSI for September was 54.1. This was 3.8 points down from August, and very similar to the 54.3 recorded in July (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates that the service sector is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining).

BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said that while the September result still indicated healthy expansion, comments from respondents tended to show a few seasonal factors at play that gave pause to expansion.

"A number of those who provided negative comments tended to focus on current weather conditions, as well as school holidays affecting operations. This culminated in the proportion of negative comments rising from 34.8% in August to 39.3% in September."

Regarding the latest PSI results, BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel said "looking through the monthly volatility, there has been some trend slowing in the PSI over recent months. It appears firm's difficulty in finding staff is one of the obviously many factors involved".

View the PSI Time Series Data


Main Indicies

Regional Results

Services Landscape
View Doug Steel's profile

Doug Steel

Senior Economist, BNZ

Slower service

The Performance of Services Index (PSI) suggests service sector growth is tempering. The PSI slowed to a middling 54.1 in September from a very strong 57.9 in August.
Read more  

Are large firms telling us something?

Expansion, albeit at a touch slower pace, remains widespread with positive readings across the major headline indices covering sales, employment, and new orders as well as across all industries and regions and most firm sizes.
Read more  

Economic growth robust, but is it slowing?

Combining the PSI and PMI, into a composite (PCI) indicator, suggests ongoing robust economic growth into year's end. But the hint, from the PCI, that growth may be slowing is in contrast to the general strengthening in other recent business (and consumer) confidence surveys
Read more


View the BNZ Services Landscape

PSI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National Indicies Sep
2015
May
2016
Jun
2016
Jul
2016
Aug
2016
Sep
2016
BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI 59.256.956.554.357.954.1
Activity/Sales 63.260.057.857.361.457.3
Employment54.054.754.553.754.251.6
New Orders/Business63.560.158.357.460.456.0
Stocks/Inventories57.052.553.551.555.853.3
Supplier Deliveries55.752.755.447.656.351.7

View the PSI Time Series Data

BNZ - BusinessNZ PSI Time Series

January 2012 – September 2016

PSI Time Series Graph

International Results

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PSITM
5 Oct 2016

51.5

International PSI

BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI

54.6

GDP-Weighted Index

55.9

Free-Weighted Index

The seasonally adjusted BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Composite Index or PCI (which combines the PMI and PSI) saw the two options for measuring the PCI both experience a decrease in expansion from August to September.
 
The September GDP-Weighted Index (54.6) decreased 2.9 points from August, while the Free-Weighted Index (55.9) fell 0.8 points. The stronger decrease in the GDP-Weighted result was mainly due to a weaker PSI value for September.

PCI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National Indicies Sep
2015
May
2016
Jun
2016
Jul
2016
Aug
2016
Sep
2016
GDP-Weighted Index 58.657.056.854.657.554.6
Free-Weighted Index57.257.557.155.556.755.9

View the PCI Time Series Data

BNZ - BusinessNZ PCI Time Series

January 2013 – 2016

PCI Time Series Graph