State of Flux – PMI

13 Nov 2020

51.7

October

-2.3

Monthly Change

expanding

slower rate

View Catherine Beard's profile

Catherine Beard

Executive Director, ExportNZ & ManufacturingNZ

View profile

New Zealand's manufacturing sector experienced a drop in expansion during October, according to the latest BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

The seasonally adjusted PMI for October was 51.7 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining).  This was down 2.3 points from September.

BusinessNZ's executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said that the sector remains in a state of flux, although still managing to keep in positive territory.

"Despite a relatively strong showing with the key indices of production and new orders in September, October saw both slide to lower levels of expansion.  On a brighter note, employment (52.6) reached its highest level since April 2018".     

BNZ Senior Economist, Craig Ebert said that “October’s PMI serves as a gentle reminder of not getting too carried away with the sense of recovery, even if the worst of COVID’s impacts can be assumed to be behind us".

View the Time Series Data


Main Indicies

Regional Results

Manufacturing Landscape
View Craig Ebert's profile

Craig Ebert

Senior Economist, BNZ

Not So Fast

October’s Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI)served as a gentle reminder. That is, of not getting too carried away with the sense of recovery, even if the worst of COVID’s impacts can be assumed to be behind us.
Read more

QSBO Also Highlights Caution

Then again, there was a bigger realisation of disappointment in October’s NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO), amongst manufacturers. Their reports of output over the last 3 months, for example, remained negative, at a net -15.
Read more

Costs

Even if activity is assured of expanding well, it is no guarantee of improved profit – especially when cost pressures are emerging, as they very much appear to be.
Read more

Capacity

The advent of rising cost pressure might seem odd, when there is supposedly gaping amounts of spare capacity in the economy. The first point we’d make about this, is that there is probably less spare capacity than generally thought.
Read more

View full BNZ Manufacturing Snapshot

PMI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National IndiciesOct
2019
Jun
2020
Jul
2020
Aug
2020
Sep
2020
Oct
2020
BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI 51.856.459.051.054.051.7
Production51.358.861.851.856.751.1
Employment 49.548.347.249.251.752.6
New Orders53.458.267.554.358.152.4
Finished Stocks48.956.951.750.048.949.1
Deliveries52.057.458.247.649.849.5

View the Time Series Data

BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI Time Series

July 2016 – October 2020

PMI Time Series Graph

International Results

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMITM
2 Nov 2020

53.0

International PMI