Holiday lull – PMI 15 Feb 2019 53.1January-1.7Monthly Changeexpandingslower rate Catherine Beard Executive Director, ExportNZ & ManufacturingNZ View profile New Zealand's manufacturing sector experienced a lower level of expansion for the first month of 2019, according to the latest BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).The seasonally adjusted PMI for January was 53.1 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining). This was 1.7 points down from December, and below the long term average of 53.4 for the survey.BusinessNZ's executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said that while the January result looked fairly similar to the results in 2018, there were aspects of it that will need to be watched in future months. Looking at the main sub-index values, new orders (52.2) decreased its level of expansion for a third consecutive month, with the latest result the lowest since December 2017. In addition, the proportion of positive comments for January (47.7%) was down considerably from December (60.6%) and November (60.1%). However, seasonal factors such as Christmas and summer holidays were evident throughout the comments. There were also a number who mentioned a softening of customer orders and market conditions. BNZ Senior Economist, Doug Steel said that "looking beyond the steady headline reading, the details of this month’s survey do raise some questions about the durability and pace of the current expansion".View the Time Series Data Main Indicies Regional Results Doug Steel Senior Economist, BNZ All fine on the surfaceAt face value, January’s Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) looks reasonable enough at 53.1. Sure it is down a nudge from December’s 54.8, but it is still in touch with 2018’s average of 53.8. Indeed, it is quite close to its long term average of 53.4.Read more But some questions underneathLooking beyond the steady headline reading, the details of this month’s survey do raise some questions about the durability and pace of the current expansion. A pullback in the production index is the most obvious one.Read more EmploymentOne reason to not get too downbeat on the slower demand components in the PMI is the solidity of its employment index.Read moreWorld worriesWorld risks have been on the radar for some time. US-China trade tensions, China’s slowdown, Australia’s house price downturn, and Europe’s stalling growth are among many areas to watch. No surprise to see slower PMIs in these areas.Read more View full BNZ Manufacturing Snapshot PMI Time Series TableThe results are seasonally adjusted. National IndiciesJan2018Sep2018Oct2018Nov2018Dec2018Jan2019 BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI 55.852.053.653.554.853.1 Production56.050.153.051.654.951.1 Employment 52.750.852.351.252.252.2 New Orders56.953.056.956.055.252.2 Finished Stocks53.153.153.454.859.054.8 Deliveries55.252.550.953.158.653.8 View the Time Series Data BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI Time Series July 2016 – January 2019 International ResultsJ.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMITM 1 Feb 201950.7 In this section Surveys & Statistics Performance of Manufacturing Index Performance of Services Index Compliance Cost Survey Exporters Survey Southern Cross Health Society - BusinessNZ Wellness in the Workplace Survey Reports & Publications BusinessNZ Planning Forecast International Guides & Tools BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI Time Series Data View seasonally adjusted and unadjusted time series data for the BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI BNZ is delighted to be associated with the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) and BusinessNZ.This association brings together the significant experience of leading business advocacy body BusinessNZ, and business finance specialist BNZ.We look forward to continuing our association with BusinessNZ and associated regional organisations, and to playing our part in the ongoing development of the New Zealand manufacturing sector. View website Media Comment For media comment, please contact: Catherine Beard, ExportNZ & ManufacturingNZ 04 496 6560 Doug Steel, BNZ 04 474 6799 Technical Comment For more information or assistance with data interpretation, please contact: Steve Summers 04 496 6564 ssummers@businessnz.org.nz Our Contributors The BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI contains data obtained through BusinessNZ's regional organisations About the PMI The BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index is a monthly survey of the manufacturing sector providing an early indicator of activity levels.A PMI reading above 50 points indicates manufacturing activity is expanding; below 50 indicates it is contracting.The main PMI and sub-index results are seasonally adjusted. Related Articles Blooming good – PMI Steady state – PMI Now hiring – PMI Stretching out – PMI Pumping production – PMI View more