Ebbs and flows – PMI

13 Dec 2019

51.4

November

-1.2

Monthly Change

expanding

slower rate

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Catherine Beard

Executive Director,, ExportNZ & ManufacturingNZ

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New Zealand's manufacturing sector experienced slower expansion levels in November, according to the latest BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

The seasonally adjusted PMI for November was 51.4 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining).  While this was the second consecutive month in expansion, it was 1.2 points lower than October's value.

BusinessNZ's executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said that the November result was somewhat of a mixed bag. 

"The sub-index of new orders (54.5) continued to lead the charge in terms of displaying the highest level of expansion.  However, production (49.6) fell back into slight contraction, as did employment (49.2).  Finished stocks (48.6) remained in a fairly tight band of contraction, while deliveries of raw materials (52.8) continued to improve from the previous month.

"The fact that new orders remains relatively healthy should provide further impetus for the sector in the coming months.  However, a sustained level of activity above the long term average for new orders would help get the sector as a whole back on track.  

Despite the dip in expansion, the proportion of positive comments for November (65.3%) was higher than October (57.6%) and September (48.8%).  Seasonal factors such as Xmas was a common theme in comments, as well as more offshore demand.

BNZ Senior Economist, Doug Steel said that “If October’s big lift in the PMI suggested the worst of NZ’s economic slowdown was behind us, November’s consolidation suggests any acceleration is not going to be in a straight line”.

View the Time Series Data


Main Indicies

Regional Results

Manufacturing Landscape
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Doug Steel

Senior Economist, BNZ

Glass Half Empty?

The focus ahead of the November issue of the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) was to see how it fared after its big jump in October. Did it hold the gains or push even higher? Or did it unwind the previous move and fall back into contractionary territory?
Read more

Glass Half Full?

But November’s PMI had some features to like as well, at least relative to recent history. The glass-half-full perspective sees the manufacturing sector posting its second consecutive month of expansion (index above 50).
Read more

Relatively Good

Another positive perspective is that NZ’s PMI is clearly above equivalents in other countries. Overall global manufacturing indicators have just crept back into positive territory but are still struggling well below trend as trade and economic uncertainty hinders investment.
Read more

Production OK in Q3?

Official manufacturing sales and inventory data for Q3 was released on Monday and inferred a surprisingly solid output gain.  While sales volumes fell 0.3%, there was a build-up in inventory indicating production was actually pretty good.
Read more

View full BNZ Manufacturing Snapshot

PMI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National IndiciesNov
2018
Jul
2019
Aug
2019
Sep
2019
Oct
2019
Nov
2019
BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI 53.248.348.648.852.651.4
Production51.151.249.646.552.449.6
Employment 51.442.250.150.050.049.2
New Orders55.849.245.151.355.654.5
Finished Stocks54.552.652.348.948.448.6
Deliveries52.749.148.547.551.352.8

View the Time Series Data

BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI Time Series

July 2016 – November 2019

PMI Time Series Graph

International Results

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMITM
2 Dec 2019

50.3

International PMI