Holding firm – PMI

14 Dec 2018

53.5

November

-0.2

Monthly Change

expanding

slower rate

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Catherine Beard

Executive Director,, ExportNZ & ManufacturingNZ

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Activity in New Zealand's manufacturing sector for November experienced a similar result to the previous month, according to the latest BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

The seasonally adjusted PMI for November was 53.5 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining).  Although this was 0.2 points lower than October, it remained just above the long-term average of 53.4 for the survey.

BusinessNZ's executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said that it was pleasing to see activity in November remain close to the October result.

"With two of the three months for the last quarter on 2018 producing results around the long-term average, this bodes well for the year to end on more of a positive note after lacklustre results during the middle of 2018.     

In addition, the proportion of positive comments for November (60.1%) improved from October (58.3%).  Seasonal factors were obviously a major discussion point, although a number pointed to increased general customer demand and sales". 

BNZ Senior Economist, Craig Ebert said that "the improvement in the PMI since July has been underpinned by a pick-up in new orders, which achieved 56.3 in November. This level is usually a good portent that production will expand relatively well in the near term".

View the Time Series Data


Main Indicies

Regional Results

Manufacturing Landscape
View Craig Ebert's profile

Craig Ebert

Senior Economist, BNZ

The PMI

Through November, the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) consolidated its recently-improved pace.  That’s not to say it’s strong. Indeed, at a seasonally adjusted 53.5, from 53.7 in October, the PMI is simply running more surely about average. Nonetheless, it’s a little better than it was back in July, when it plumbed 51.3.
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Production/Sales

For the meantime, however, the production component of the PMI has been expanding on the slow side of average.  In fact, it dipped to a seasonally adjusted 51.5 in November, from 52.9 in October.
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GDP/Exports

As for what Statistics NZ comes up with, with respect to NZ manufacturing output, all will be revealed in next week’s Q3 GDP accounts. For these we are assuming a relatively flat outcome for manufacturing, but a 0.6% expansion in GDP overall.
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Pricing

However, trends in manufacturing pricing were relatively strong in Q3. With respect to output (selling) prices, the latest producer price indexes registered a 2.9% quarterly increase for the industry.
Read more

View full BNZ Manufacturing Snapshot

PMI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National IndiciesNov
2017
Jul
2018
Aug
2018
Sep
2018
Oct
2018
Nov
2018
BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI 57.551.352.352.053.753.5
Production60.449.252.749.952.951.5
Employment 54.751.449.350.852.451.3
New Orders56.752.453.453.057.056.3
Finished Stocks56.253.651.652.953.154.2
Deliveries58.153.954.052.550.852.5

View the Time Series Data

BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI Time Series

July 2014 – November 2018

PMI Time Series Graph

International Results

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMITM
3 Dec 2018

52.0

International PMI