Downward trend – PMI

10 Aug 2018

51.2

July

-1.5

Monthly Change

expanding

slower rate

View Catherine Beard's profile

Catherine Beard

Executive Director, ManufacturingNZ & ExportNZ

View profile

New Zealand's manufacturing expansion continued its downward trend, according to the latest BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

The seasonally adjusted PMI for July was 51.2 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining).  This was 1.5 points lower than June, and the third consecutive month where expansion has weakened.

BusinessNZ's executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said that the July result produced a few red flags in terms of where the manufacturing sector currently sits.

"Production (49.0) experienced its lowest level of contraction since May 2015, while the unadjusted PMI was in slight contraction for the first time since January 2017.  While employment (51.2) rose above the no change mark after two months of decline, new orders (52.6) displayed only minor to moderate expansion. 

In addition, the proportion of positive comments (48.8%) was overtaken by the proportion of negative comments (51.3%) during July.  Those who provided negative comments noted some seasonal factors at play, along with general customer demand slowing.   

BNZ Senior Economist, Doug Steel said that "at this level, the PMI is hinting at more than just a slowdown in the manufacturing sector but outright slow growth".

View the Time Series Data


Main Indicies

Regional Results

Manufacturing Landscape
View Doug Steel's profile

Doug Steel

Senior Economist, BNZ

Below average

New Zealand’s Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) has slipped further in July, marking the third consecutive slowing from its big spike in April. More disconcertingly, July’s 51.2, following June’s 52.7, is the second consecutive reading below the series’ long term average of 53.4.
Read more

Growth forecasts on notice

Being a survey of actual activity – not confidence or expectations – the PMI results through June and July are not a good look for overall economic growth.
Read more

Employment better

Amid the generally sombre July PMI details, employment was a rare brighter spot. Not that it was particularly strong, but at 51.2 it was back above the 50 mark following two months below it.
Read more

View full BNZ Manufacturing Snapshot

PMI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National IndiciesJul
2017
Mar
2018
Apr
2018
May
2018
Jun
2018
Jul
2018
BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI 55.853.159.154.352.751.2
Production57.352.460.553.251.449.0
Employment 55.053.154.249.649.251.2
New Orders56.854.860.156.456.552.6
Finished Stocks55.554.355.151.850.353.6
Deliveries56.954.760.858.251.254.5

View the Time Series Data

BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI Time Series

January 2013 – July 2018

PMI Time Series Graph

International Results

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMITM
1 Aug 2018

52.7

International PMI