Autumn tinge – PMI

14 Apr 2016

54.7

March

-1.2

Monthly Change

expanding

slower rate

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Catherine Beard

Executive Director,, ExportNZ & ManufacturingNZ

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New Zealand's manufacturing sector continued to experience a slower rate of expansion in March, according to the latest BNZ - BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

The seasonally adjusted PMI for March was 54.7 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining).  This was 1.2 points down from February, and the lowest level of expansion since October 2015.  The sector has now been in continued expansion since October 2012.

BusinessNZ's executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said that the dip in expansion for March was across all the sub-indices, with employment in slight contraction for the second month running.

"While a number of negative comments mentioned a slowdown in both domestic and offshore orders, it is still important to remember that two-thirds of comments from manufacturers remain positive, not to mention that the sector is still in expansion mode."    

BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel said 'while there are some conflicting signals in the details, the PMI indicates ongoing growth in the manufacturing sector overall. NZ's PMI remains well ahead of many other major economy equivalents.'

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Main Indicies

Regional Results

Manufacturing Landscape
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Doug Steel

Senior Economist, BNZ

PMI Looks Solid

SolidNew Zealand's Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) showed a slower rate of expansion in March (54.7) compared to February (55.9), which itself was slower than January (57.9). A slowdown for sure, but it would have to extend quite a bit further before it became a genuine growth worry.

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Devil In The Detail?

Even though the PMI remains robust overall, there are a few potential devils in the detail. Lower employment and a relatively high inventory reading are worth monitoring from here.

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Are New Orders Up, Down or Sideways?

New orders are a good gauge of near term demand. The problem is the PMI survey and last week's QSBO are giving highly conflicting signals on this front.

Read more  

NZ Still Stands Out

On a three month average basis, NZ's PMI still stands head and shoulders above similar indicators from major economies around the world.

Read more .

View full BNZ Manufacturing Snapshot

PMI Time Series Table

The results are seasonally adjusted.

National Indicies Mar
2015
Nov
2015
Dec
2015
Jan
2016
Feb
2016
Mar
2016
BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI 55.255.157.057.955.954.7
Production56.454.256.960.356.555.0
Employment 50.553.852.554.248.848.6
New Orders56.758.260.059.960.758.2
Finished Stocks52.750.755.254.557.255.5
Deliveries55.655.157.657.456.052.6

View the Time Series Data

BNZ - BusinessNZ PMI Time Series

July 2014 – March 2016

PMI Time Series Graph

International Results

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMITM
1 Apr 2016

50.5

International PMI