NZ economy: cross-currents of risk

28 Mar 2019

Cross-currents of international and domestic risk raise the need for sound economic risk management, according to the latest BusinessNZ Planning Forecast.

The BusinessNZ Planning Forecast for the March 2019 quarter highlights international trading risks, particularly around Brexit and US-China trade.

Domestic risk factors include concerns over a capital gains tax, employment relations changes, skill shortages, and Reserve Bank capital requirement proposals that would increase the cost of capital.

But BusinessNZ Chief Executive Kirk Hope says the Government’s fiscal position is sound and the outlook for growth – at just under 3 percent through to 2021 - is reasonably strong.

The BusinessNZ Economic Conditions Index sits at 8 for the March 2019 quarter, up 6 on the previous quarter and up 2 on a year ago.

The Index tracks 33 economic indicators including GDP, export volumes, commodity prices, inflation, debt, and business and consumer confidence.

The BusinessNZ Planning Forecast for the March 2019 quarter is on www.businessnz.org.nz